Demand estimates and modal share

Chapter 4 of the Economic evaluation manual volume 2, 2005, deals with demand estimates and modal share, covering:

• Methods used to estimate the likely affect of changes
• Forecasting the demand
• Sensitivity testing of the demand estimates
• Reporting of demand estimates

Methods used to estimate the likely affect of changes

Section 4.2 of the Economic evaluation manual volume 2, 2005, describes the methods used to estimate how various types of change to transport systems are likely to affect travel behaviour and therefore the demand for a mode, service or facility.

• Demand estimates
• Elasticity and cross-elasticity
• Nature of demand
• Factors affecting price elasticities
• Modal share
• Stated preference surveys
• Rules

Forecasting the demand

The estimated future demand for the do minimum and each option must be calculated. This is detailed in Section 4.3 of the Economic evaluation manual volume 2, 2005, which covers:

• Procedure for a new service or facility
• Procedure for improvement to a service or facility

Sensitivity testing of the demand estimates

Assessments of the sensitivity of the demand estimates to critical assumptions shall be undertaken on the preferred proposal option. Section 4.4 of the Economic evaluation manual volume 2, 2005, covers:

• Required sensitivity tests
• User charges
• Demand levels

Reporting of demand estimates

There are several pieces of information that must be derived and reported in the evaluators report in order to be able to complete the evaluation procedures. They are described in Section 4.5 of the Economic evaluation manual volume 2, 2005, which covers: