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Home Economic evaluation manual 2005 - vol 2 (demand management & transport services) Ch 12 Risk analysis 12.3 - Cost risks

References

  • Planning, programming and funding
  • Economic evaluation
  • Procurement

12.3 - Cost risks

  • 12.1 - Risk analysis
  • 12.2 - Benefit risks
  • 12.3 - Cost risks

12.3 - Cost risks

Procedure

As a general principle, if there is at least a five percent risk that any of the following categories or sub-categories could account for a variation in total project cost of more than ±10 percent then it should be classified as ‘high risk’.

Most of the cost risks are comparable with roading risk although there may be differences in their precise description and nature, which should be allowed for in completing worksheet A13(a) in volume 1.

Base Travel Demands Tangata Whenua issues As for roading.
Refer to worksheet A13(a) in volume 1.
Emissions
Landscape and visual
Ecological effects
Archaeological and historic sites
Social networks and severance
Economic/amenity impacts on land users
Land and property Property acquisition
Property economic value
Earthworks Knowledge of ground conditions
Complex/unpredictable conditions
Design form
Extent of topographical data
Source and disposal of material
Other engineering costs Engineering complexity
Signalling and communications Signalling and communications infrastructure should generally be considered a high risk element of engineering costs.
Operating surplus/deficit Unless the service operating surplus/deficit (the balance of revenue and operating costs) forms a large part of total costs, it would normally be classified as low risk.
Services Existence, location and condition As for roading.
Refer to worksheet A13(a) in volume 1.
Site flexibility
Co-operation of utilities

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