5.10 - Sensitivity analysis
- 5.1- Evaluation of transport services
- 5.2 - Method of evaluation
- 5.3 - Scope of analysis
- 5.4 - Stages in analysis
- 5.5 - Do minimum
- 5.6 - Benefits and costs
- 5.7 - Period of analysis
- 5.8 - Cost benefit evaluation
- 5.9 - Alternatives and options
- 5.10 - Sensitivity analysis
- 5.11- Additional information required if simplified procedures are
5.10 - Sensitivity analysis
Possible significant factors
Inputs to transport service proposal evaluations that should be considered for sensitivity testing include:
- demand estimates - refer to chapter 4
- funding gap - refer to chapter 6
- major contributors to benefits
- commencement of the proposal.
Major contributors to benefits
Road user benefits critical to the outcome of the evaluation may include:
- traffic volumes, particularly model results, growth rates and the assessment of diverted and generated traffic and transport service users
- travel speeds
- accident reduction.
For each significant factor the following shall be listed:
- the assumptions and estimates on which the evaluation has been based
- an upper and lower bound of the range of the estimate
- the resultant BCR at the upper and lower bound of each estimate.
BCR of delaying proposal
For the preferred proposal option, calculate a revised BCR of delaying the proposal for one year.
Incremental analysis
The results of incremental analysis shall be sensitivity tested using an incremental BCR 1.0 higher than the target incremental BCR.
Results of sensitivity tests
The results of the sensitivity tests, along with explanation of any assumptions or choice of test, shall be reported in a format similar to worksheet 7 in volume 1.
