4.5 - Reporting of demand estimates

4.5 - Reporting of demand estimates

Introduction

Regardless of what methodology is undertaken to complete a demand forecast, there are several pieces of information that must be derived, and reported in the evaluator's report, in order to be able to complete the evaluation procedures described in this manual.

Each of these is described below.

Assumptions

Any assumptions made, particularly regarding future traffic and growth rates, must be clearly stated.

Peak period

Reporting of service use, road use and road trips is limited to the peak period. The proposer shall define and justify the peak period appropriate to the particular proposal.

Except for freight services, in most cases new or improved transport services will be limited to the peak periods. Where a proposer believes that a new or improved passenger transport service includes an off-peak component (such as accident reduction benefits) this shall be fully explained and justified in the evaluator's report.

Transport service or facility usage

The following data about the users of the service is required:

  • in the case of an existing service or facility
    • the base or existing number of users
    • the one-off change in usage as a result of implementing the proposal
  • in the case of a new service or facility, the projected number of users
    • the predicted future trend of use after the initial change or introduction of a new service or facility
  • the source(s) of new users of a service or facility
    • transferred from other modes
    • transferred from private vehicles as either drivers or passengers
    • newly generated trips.

Road trips

Where there is an existing road or road network that will be affected by the improvement or implementation of a service or facility, the following data shall be presented:

  • the existing number of road trips (by vehicle type where relevant)
  • the change in number of road trips (by vehicle type where relevant)
  • the new level of road trips following the implementation of the improved or new service or facility.

This information may be presented as actual number of road trips, total number of vehicle kilometres and/or total number of vehicle minutes, depending on the nature of the proposal.

The number of private vehicles can be estimated from the average vehicle occupancy rates, while the number of buses may be determined by using the service schedule then dividing by the average loading.

User charges

In the case of improvements to an existing transport service, the following information is required:

  • the base (or existing) average user charge
  • the proposed new user charge
  • the maximum charge users would be willing-to-pay for the service improvement

In the case of a new service, the information required is:

  • the proposed new user charge
  • the maximum charge users would be willing-to-pay for the new service.

For the purposes of this manual, the maximum user charge is considered to be that price above which no one would use the service under consideration.